Sufficient Information Threshold For Effective Bayesian Applications

As clinical trial experts know all too well, it is very difficult to tell ahead of time exactly when there will be sufficient information to justify stopping a clinical trial. One can make the case that whenever that minimum level of information has been reached, there are reasons to stop the trial. At that theoretical point, call it the Sufficient Information Threshold, all the information possibly relevant to the study will have been collected: information about the primary endpoint, any secondary endpoints, and safety data to construct a risk-benefit profile. It could also include early phase information relevant to designing optimal late phase studies. The Sufficient Information Threshold is therefore a conceptual point that can enable us to begin asking questions about the efficiency, ethical quality and effectiveness of a clinical study.

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