By Nicolas Biber, Ph.D., Clinical Supply Chain Manager & Simulation Specialist, at Fisher Clinical Services
A special guest blog post by Nicolas Biber, PhD, Clinical Supply Chain Manager & Simulation Specialist, at Fisher Clinical Services
Despite the complexity of today’s drug supply chain and high cost of drugs, we as an industry base many of our supply decisions on simplified estimates of how much drug will be needed. This can compromise trial completion and cause unnecessary expense. At Fisher Clinical Services many of our customers are becoming aware of these risks associated with drug supply estimates and are looking for ways to more accurately determine the amount of drug needed for each specific trial. Luckily, we have access to technology to help us navigate the complexity.
Let’s consider overage as an example: often, an arbitrary percentage of overage is added to the estimated drug demand forecast as a general rule of thumb. Why? Because projecting how much overage you will need is complex and can appear overwhelming. While some companies have projected overage with some level of success and even created complex systems to do so, the methods used to date might not be the best or most accurate because they are often based on deterministic or statistical distribution models that make no or only theoretical assumptions about variability.