By Pantelis Vlachos, Principal/Strategic Consultant, Cytel, Inc.
Early stage Phase 2 clinical trials are often designed as multi-stage single arm trials, which quickly identify inefficacious molecules and interventions, without subjecting too many patients to treatments with questionable standard of care. As the primary purpose of these designs is the early stopping for futility, it is often the case that very small cohorts enroll in early stages of the design. A larger cohort is only allowed to enroll when results from earlier enrollment suggest that there is clinical benefit to the new treatment.
The rise of Bayesian methods has meant that predictive power can be used to assess efficacy during these single arm Phase 2 studies, but how do they differ from traditional designs and when should they be used?